What will happen if Obamacare fails?
Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act could fail for some reasons, ranging from a decline in the number of participating insurance companies to repeal of the legislation creating the health care program.
However, a bigger failure may result if the ACA or Obamacare is repealed and replaced by a plan that is not as generous.
Another issue is that the final decision will come at the federal level, but the states should be most probably be more involved.
Regardless of whether the ACA fails or if it is replaced by a plan offered by the Republican Party, there is tremendous uncertainty about the level of coverage that will be available and the cost.
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American Medical Association Supports ACA
The AMA sent a letter to congressional leaders saying it was unable to support the GOP bill largely due to the “expected decline in health insurance coverage and the potential harm it would cause to vulnerable patient populations.”
Among other things, the AMA cited the proposed rollback of Medicaid expansions that happened under the Affordable Care Act, which the group called “highly successful in providing coverage for lower income individuals”.
The proposed repeal of the Prevention and Public Health Fund, also established by Obamacare; and provisions targeting Planned Parenthood.
The following provides a review of health care issues regarding Obamacare and the alternative offered by the Republican members of the Congress.
All in all, the replacement plan benefits people who are healthy and high-income and disadvantages those who are sicker and lower-income.
The replacement plan would make several changes to what health insurers can charge enrollees who purchase insurance on the individual market, as well as changing what benefits their plans must cover.
In aggregate, these changes could be advantageous to younger and healthier enrollees who want skimpier (and cheaper) benefit packages. However, it could be costly for older and sicker Obamacare enrollees, who rely on the law’s current requirements.”
The Affordable Care Act has been in force for nearly nine years. The Republican Party has been pushing for a change since the measure was first enacted and upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court. However, no viable alternative is on the table.
The plan removes the individual and employer mandates to purchase and provide insurance, respectively, and it would also repeal most of the taxes that fund Obamacare. It would roll back funding for the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion and dramatically restructure the Medicaid program’s funding.
Further, the plan would replace the Affordable Care Act’s cost-sharing subsidies and premium tax credits with an age-rated tax credit, all while keeping Obamacare’s popular pre-existing conditions ban.
What are some alternatives to Obamacare?
The ACA has many benefits that most people do not know. That is because negative messages about Obamacare outnumbered positive messages fifteen to one.
Obamacare was enacted to make certain that everyone had access to credible insurance.
Before Obamacare, a person could be turned down for a prior health condition that developed and corrected years earlier. With the ACA, no one could be turned down for that reason.
The possible failure of Obamacare could come from two directions. First, Congress could eliminate the program. That has been tried by the Republican Party but has failed.The second issue is the lack of participation, especially from the younger and healthier part of the population.
The younger potential pool of clients is not participating in the Affordable Care Act. They are choosing to pay an annual penalty, much less than the premium and expecting to get health care through their employer, other programs or just take their chances with nothing bad happening.
Alice Rivlin of the Brookings Institution Initiative for Innovation in Health Policy wrote that “repeal by itself would create a human and political disaster.” She added, “At least 20 million people would lose their health insurance; millions of others would be unable to buy affordable coverage in a chaotic individual insurance market; many doctors, hospitals, and other health providers would lose paying customers; and states would feel the pinch of cuts in federal Medicaid money. Ironically, many of the states that made the most dramatic progress reducing their uninsured populations under Obamacare, and would suffer the most disruption from repeal, are the Rust Belt and the Appalachian States that put (President) Trump over the top.”
The Future of American Health Care
Obamacare has never been the subject of thoughtful debate by members of Congress, news media, and other groups. It has been the proverbial political football that is more concerned with repealing something the Democratic Party has done and replacing it with something the Republicans like.
Obviously, there are problems with Obamacare is having problems. Insurance companies are dropping out of the exchanges. The younger generation is not participating and choosing to pay the penalty for not having coverage.
The inclusion of younger and healthier generation was envisioned to provide funds that could be used to cover costs of regarding the elderly.
Perhaps the issue that must be decided is whether insurance should be available, including those with pre-existing conditions, as is the case under the ACA, or should the decision be made to limit coverage and delete some of the mandates of the ACA.
An analysis of Trumpcare vs. Obamacare, reports that Donald Trump’s first act as President was to order government agencies to avoid implementing, as much as is legally possible, what has become known as Obamacare.
But Obamacare, it turns out, has done a lot of good. It guarantees that people with preëxisting health conditions cannot be rejected by insurers or charged more than others. It has reduced the number of uninsured people by twenty million.
Obamacare has increased access to primary care, specialty care, surgery, medicines, and treatment for chronic conditions. Patients are less likely to skip needed care because of the cost. As a result, according to studies conducted at Harvard, the ACA. is saving tens of thousands of lives each year.
The Republicans in Congress are facing the wrath of constituents who don’t want to lose those gains. Conservatives have had to back off from their plan to repeal Obamacare now and worry about replacement later.
Instead, they must grapple with what they have tried to ignore: the complexities of our health-care system, especially in the four vital areas of employer-sponsored coverage, Medicaid, the individual insurance market, and taxes.”
The biggest difference between the ACA and the Republican plan is that the ACA provide a greater level of coverage.
A comparison of the two plans developed by LA Times shows what each plan would offer. It also offers the following observation:
“The Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act would remove health coverage for an estimated 24 million Americans by 2026, according to an independent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office. The hardest hit, in the long run, would be lower-income Americans and those nearing retirement. Lawmakers from both parties rely on the nonpartisan budget office to gauge the potential impact of legislation.”
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